Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Electoral Math

Back around June, I really didn't think President Obama had a chance of being re-elected.  Boy, how 3 months can really change things.  At this point, I don't think the Republican Party has a chance to unseat him.

The main issue is the GOP nominee.  As I mentioned in the previous blog, Mitt Romney has practically no chance of winning either of his home states.  This got me to thinking about how the electoral map could be modified to make him win. 

I started by giving all of the South to Romney.  Even Florida.  I gave him North Carolina and Virginia, in spite of poor polling there. I just gave him the whole South.  Free 29 electoral votes from Florida, included.

I threw in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska, for good measure. 
Next, I gave him the Mountain-West.  Montana, the Dakotas, Idaho, Wyoming and Utah.  Toss Alaska in there, to boot.

Finally, I gave him Indiana and, stretching logic and being very, very generous, I gave him the coveted Ohio.  Ohio is the swing state that has made many elections.  I just gave it to Romney without any indication that he could possibly win it.  A free 18 electoral votes.

To Obama, I gave the Northeast, D.C., and the West Coast.  The Mid-West I couldn't give to either candidate as a whole, so, after assigning Indiana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Kansas and Ohio to Romney, I allowed Obama to take his home state, Illinois, which he is dominating, anyway.  I also gave him Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota, all of which have low electoral numbers, and are leaning toward Obama in the polls. 

Colorado and New Mexico, with low electoral numbers and pro-Obama polling numbers, I awarded to the President, as well. 

Last of all, and the nail in the coffin, is Michigan.  It is leaning precariously towards Obama.  Awarding Michigan to Obama gives him the win with 272 electoral votes, even with Romney winning both of the usual swing states.

The verdict is pretty clear:  Romney can't win.  Even if he did appeal to swing voters enough to carry the big swing states, it seems highly unlikely that he might pull off the total win.  I'm not going to say it is impossible, but the Northeast, D.C., and the West Coast already puts Obama over 200 electoral votes, a number very hard to overcome without winning almost every other state. 

If conservatives want to get Obama out of office, they need to look elsewhere.  It is simple math.

The two gray states are the 'swing' states.  I gave them both to Romney in my count.  The total in my most optimistic projection for Romney is: OBAMA:272, ROMNEY:266.

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