Friday, February 08, 2008

Happy Weekend and Delegate Counts

It's FRIGGIN' FRIDAY! I plan to do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING tomorrow. I've been running around, campaigning, and doing all sorts of odds and ends all week. I need a day of rest.

It's a beautiful day. I wish I rode my bike to work. Not so much for the freezing cold 80mph ride in the morning, but for the nice ride home this afternoon. I saw Mercury and Venus shining very brightly in the sky as dawn broke. It made me want to break out my telescope. Maybe I'll do that this weekend.


If you're paying attention to the GOP delegate count, you know that none of the candidates are even close to cinching up a nomination. The earliest McCain (with <690 delegates) could do it is March 4th, and that's if he gets ALL the delegates from every primary and caucus until then. That's 13 more states from which he'd have to win all the delegates. Logically, unless Huckabee drops out, Sen. McCain will probably have to keep going until late May or June to earn the nod.

The only way Huckabee (150+ delegates) can secure the nomination before the National Convention is by winning EVERY DELEGATE until the last primary in Nebraska, on July 12th. Basically, his only realistic hope is a brokered convention. Ron Paul's (42+ delegates) only hope is the brokered convention, as well.

The upcoming debate will be very interesting with only Paul, Huckabee and McCain. It'll be much harder to ignore Paul. What I really want to see is a McCain-Paul debate. With Paul on the far right, and McCain on the far left, the differences would be as discernable as night from day. Huckabee mucks up things, because he falls in the moderate category. Fiscally to the left, and socially to the right, his presence makes the distance between McCain and Paul seem shorter, and the contrast a little less stark.

Unless Huckabee drops out, the GOP convention will be pretty nasty. The voter base is split geographically between McCain and Huckabee. The religious-leaning South is going for Huckabee, the more secular North and West are leaning towards McCain. The part of the GOP that votes with their pocketbook backs Ron Paul, because of his staunch fiscally and socially conservative stands. It's more than enough to carry him through the convention. If Huckabee bows out, it gives McCain the opportunity to capture southern delegates that could sew up the nomination before having to face an angry convention full of fiscal and social conservatives.

It's getting REALLY interesting, now!

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