Wednesday, September 06, 2006

More Sim Football Scores

My computer simulator, 1-0 so far this season, has picked the Ohio State Buckeyes to defeat the Texas Longhorns, 19-13. Don't bank on the score, however.

While the computer picked the winner of the Bama-Hawaii game, the score wasn't quite on. Bama, projected to score 37, scored only 25. Hawaii, projected to score 27, underscored by 10, finishing with 17. A few variables in the game made the difference, I think. The replay option took 16 points away from Alabama when 3 TDs were overturned; One resulted in a Safety, another in a Field Goal. Things like replays involve human observation. Christiansen was the kicker in my simulation. Tiffen, his replacement, missed a 3 pointer that 'Money' would've never missed. These are variables you can't plug into a computer, and can really make a difference in the outcome of a football game. Alabama would've scored very close to 37 points without the replays and missed FG.

Injuries, another unforseen variable, could easily affect any game, just as they did Bama against LSU and Auburn, last year. Injuries are purely chance variables. They are too random to accurately predict.

As a result, I wouldn't bet on the Texas-Ohio St. outcome. The score is too close. If it were a difference of 15+, I might consider it a sure thing. Six points could go either way. A trick play, a replay, or something unpredictable could put 6 on the board very quickly.

Here's some other scores I've simmed:

PENN ST vs ND 34-24, PENN ST
MISS ST vs AUBURN 36-25, MISS ST
AUBURN vs OLE MISS 37-13, AUBURN
UGA vs S CAROLINA 35-28, UGA
LSU vs AUBURN 24-20, LSU
UCLA vs ND 55-6, UCLA (!)
VANDY vs TENN 27-23, VANDY (!)
FLA vs TENN 14-7, FLA
UGA vs VANDY 17-3, UGA
UGA vs MISS ST 20-3, UGA
UGA vs FLA 22-15, UGA
TEXAS vs FSU 38-9, TEXAS (!)

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